Expectations for US Fed Interest Rate Cut Heat Up Again, Boosting Copper Prices, Tariff Uncertainty Caps Overnight Gains [SMM Copper Morning Comment]

SMM April 25th News: LME copper opened at $9,434.5/mt overnight, fluctuating downward at the beginning of the session, with the lowest point reaching $9,368.0/mt. It then rose steadily, nearing the session's end at $9,459.5/mt, and finally closed at $9,455.0/mt, marking an increase of 0.92%. The trading volume was 10,021, and the open interest was 284,031. SHFE copper 2506 contract opened at 77,500 yuan/mt overnight, with prices fluctuating initially before gradually rising. The lowest point was 77,460 yuan/mt, and the highest was 77,800 yuan/mt, closing at 77,770 yuan/mt, an increase of 0.14%. The trading volume was 39,934, and the open interest was 162,792, with a daily increase of -3,344, a change of -2.01%. On the macro front, US Fed's Harker stated that if economic data becomes clear, the US Fed might cut interest rates in June, while Waller indicated that a clearer understanding of how tariffs affect the economy would not be available until July. If tariffs lead to an increase in unemployment, interest rate cuts might be initiated. Comments from US Fed officials have heightened expectations for rate cuts, causing the US dollar index to pull back and boosting copper prices, though uncertainty over tariffs limited the gains. On the fundamental side, high copper prices and premiums suppressed market activity yesterday, but with the approaching weekend and Labour Day holiday, downstream stocking demand is expected, potentially improving purchasing sentiment today. Overall, with the US dollar index rebounding, copper prices are expected to face upward pressure today.